Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has fixed the annual power generation target for FY21 at 1330 BU, implying a 6.2 per cent growth over the actual generation level of FY20.
The FY21 power generation target is 6.2 per cent higher than the actual generation for FY20 that stood at 1252.610 BU ((billion units or billion kwh). It may be mentioned that power generation during FY20 had grown by a very modest 0.3 per cent over the comparable level of FY19, which stood at 1249.333 BU.
In FY20, thermal power was responsible for the overall poor performance. Thermal power generation (mainly driven by coal) dropped year-on-year by 2.6 per cent in FY20. Coal typically has a predominant share not only in thermal power generation but also in overall power generation from conventional sources.
FY21 Target analysis
The 1330 BU target for FY21 places an even higher reliance on coal. This fossil fuel is envisaged to account for 93 per cent of the total thermal power generation, and nearly 80 per cent of the total power generation, in FY21. Other modes of thermal power generation include lignite, natural gas, diesel and naphtha. Natural gas would be the next biggest contributor of thermal power generation in FY21 with a share of 4.1 per cent, followed by lignite with 3.1 per cent, estimates CEA.
Nuclear power generation in FY21 is envisaged to be 5.4 per cent lower than in FY20. Even hydropower generation is pegged 10 per cent lower in FY21 than the actual generation in FY20. This “fall” in targets should be seen in light of the fact that nuclear power generation had grown by 22.7 per cent in FY20 while hydropower generation was up 15.6 per cent. Thus, the suppressed targets for FY21 have a “high base” effect.
Performance in FY20
In FY20, thermal power generation at 1044.445 BU. suffered a 2.6 per cent fall over the 1072.223 BU generated in FY19. This led to overall electricity generation growing by just 0.3 per cent in FY20. Electricity generation stood at 1252.610 BU in FY20 as against 1249.334 BU in FY19. Thermal power generation accounted for 83.4 per cent of the total generation in FY20. This explains why the 2.6 per cent fall in thermal power generation could not be offset by the healthy growth of 22.7 per cent and 15.6 per cent seen in nuclear and hydropower generation, respectively.
Conventional only
The entire discussion revolves around “conventional” sources of power that include thermal, nuclear and large hydropower plants (with installed capacity exceeding 25 mw). Renewable sources of energy including solar, wind, biomass and even small hydropower plants (with capacity less than 25 mw) do not fall under the purview of this discussion. CEA has started providing statistics on renewable energy also, however this based on what is issued by the ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE). CEA is a body under the ministry of power. Nevertheless, a brief idea of the share of renewables in total electricity generation is given below.
Role of renewables
The final figures for electricity generation from renewable sources in FY20 are not yet available. However, this figure for the first eleven months (April 2019 to February 2020) is pegged at 127.018 BU. If we annualize this figure, we get an estimate of 138.565 BU for the total electricity generated from renewable resources in FY20 (full year). Thus, the share of renewables in FY20 was around 10 per cent. Within the various sources of renewable energy, wind had a dominant share of 48.2 per cent in total electricity generated from renewable sources, followed by solar with 35 per cent. Small hydropower plants (less than 25 mw capacity) and bagasse-based power plants had a share of around 7 per cent, each. Bagasse-based power plants are associated with sugar mills. The residual sugarcane, after crushing, is referred to as bagasse and is used to fire a power plant. The sugarcane juice (referred to as molasses) is further processed into sugar, and sometimes potable alcohol.
Notes:
- FY stands for “fiscal year” running from April to March. FY21 runs from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, FY20 is from April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020, and so on.
- 1 BU = 1 billion kwh = (1 billion * 1000)wh = 1Gwh [because 1k = 1000]
- Also, 1 BU = 1 billion kwh = (1000 * 1 million) kwh = 1000 MU
